Next Monday I’ll move on to the pitchers. I know some people do downside bold predictions, but I’m especially bad at those. I am not going to predict the impossible. The goal here isn’t to nail 100% of these, they just don’t have a high enough probability to expect such a success rate, but rather to come up with predictions that could happen to highlight some potential breakouts and statistical surges. March 18, 2021. Gift a Membership. Become a Member No Thanks Already a member? The A's are willing to be bold. Did they remain in the Majors or were they demoted back to the minors soon after? While BABIP doesn’t translate 1:1 to the Majors, minor league BABIP does correlate with MLB BABIP. Instead, his fastball velocity dipped and skills collapsed, but now the luck pendulum swung in the opposite direction and this time his SIERA was more than double his ERA. Let's take a look at some of the Astros prospects that made the list. While those picks should add some insight, they are more for fun given the loooooong odds of getting even one of them right. Pitchers pitching dominating the windup can post even better numbers than aces, but what separates the two is the work out of the stretch. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. Help Support FanGraphs. While Fenway is nothing special for right-handed homers, it’s still better than Tropicana Field. Of course! The Rangers’ Rotation Has the Most fWAR in the AL . In Spring so far, his fastball has been up 1.7 MPH, which puts him back to his 2019 level and returns him to the former prospect with upside perch he may have dropped from last year. Unlike for hitters, I’ll only be sharing bold leaders in four categories. Hot takes are famously a huge part of the sports industrial complex, but here at FanGraphs, we’re not very good at them. Starting this afternoon, Major League Baseball games will officially count for the 2021 season standings. For one thing, they’re hard! However, his sinker fastball is up over two miles per hour compared to last year, so perhaps now Mize will become the strikeout pitcher his top prospect status required. Matt Boyd had a lot of buzz coming into the 2020 season. Story continues below advertisement. His Statcast calculated xBABIP marks don’t show any sort of BABIP suppression skills, while his HR/FB rates have remained in double digits each season since 2016. 2021 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. So how is he outperforming? The amount of public information out there is borderline overwhelming. Manuel Margot is a top 30 outfielder. ... and PECOTA and FanGraphs are … Steamer’s projection isn’t a very high bar to climb over. The goal here isn’t to nail 100% of these, they just don’t have a high enough probability to expect such a success rate, but rather to come up with predictions that could happen to highlight some potential breakouts and statistical surges. Of course, the systems only know about his frightening velocity trend, which ended with an 89.6 MPH (88.7 MPH according to Statcast) average last year. Cordero owns immense power, so it’s sad we’ve barely gotten to see it on display. With no stolen base potential, he essentially needs to hit 30 homers and bat near .300. But his velocity has seemingly really surged and he’s shown some strong strikeout rates in the minors. Hopefully you enjoyed my earlier bold predictions piece earlier today. My definition of a bold prediction is one that lies roughly in the 70th to 90th range of percentile possible outcomes. In most years, this introductory sentence would be a simple fact. How did they perform in their first taste of MLB action? Renfroe’s career BABIP is just .254, so there’s ample room for upside to reach that .260 batting average. Alex Chamberlain’s Seven Bold Predictions for 2021. At Triple-A in 2019, he hit 35 homers with 22 steals. fangraphs.com - Opening day is upon us! All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Unfortunately, an insane BABIP and low LOB% meant his SIERA was nearly half his actual ERA! This prediction stems from a hot take that … didn’t land. March 17, 2014 (Corrected from earlier draft, “Hopeless Joe’s Ten Old Prescriptions.” Apologies for misunderstanding the assignment.) The Blue Jays will lead the AL in wins. Today, I’ll start with the bold hitting league leaders in each of the five categories, split up by league. It didn’t affect his strikeout rate last year, but it’s no surprise that the velocity loss is causing Steamer to project his lowest strikeout rate since 2014. So here we have another battle between a high cost player and a low cost player. Fangraphs’ ZiPS has Olson projected as one of the top first basemen in the game and also has him projected to hit 38 long balls. Astros Land Three Prospects on Fangraphs' Top Prospect List The Astros minor league system is not what it once was, but there are still some solid prospects in this bunch. These are all possibilities that could happen, that I feel will happen if things break just right. Baseball statistics for Major League baseball and Minor League baseball with statistical analysis, graphs, and projections FanGraphs Membership. Last Thursday, I shared my bold hitter league leaders, and then yesterday my bold pitcher league leaders. His K% and BB% are both better with the bases empty. All Six of the Following Pitchers Will Beat their Steamer Projected K% Marks: What does this group have in common? I am no longer a member of my AL-only Scoresheet league. Do you think preventing HRs with men on is a repeatable skill? All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Can I see a scenario in which Guerrero earns his ADP or better? As always – please remember: These are bold predictions, not crazy predictions. Rojas was my favorite peripheral prospect in ... 2) Randy Dobnak is a top-30 starting pitcher. George Springer will hit 30 HR and have 20 SB. Opening day is upon us! Park Factors Player A is Margot’s Steamer 600 projection and Player B … Maybe this isn’t bold enough given that he has averaged .287-33-93 per 650 PA. fangraphs.com • 19d. All it took was 11 starts of 1.73 ERA ball and suddenly Bauer is the fourth starting pitcher off the board in NFBC leagues over the last week. Maybe Ryu should try what Rosenthal did and switch to stretch pitching exclusively. This isn’t super bold, but it needs to be put out into the universe. Last Thursday, I shared my bold hitter league leaders, and then yesterday my bold pitcher league leaders. Final week ADP: 387.5 | $1.3 | undrafted in 17% of leagues. My concern stemmed from a decline in velocity last year that was closing in on the danger zone (sub-90 MPH), but Statcast confirms he has been averaging over 92 MPH with his four-seamer, compared to just 90 last year. Because all predictions should be made in retrospect. However, has everyone forgotten his entire inconsistent career? Log In. Let’s dive right in. Starting this afternoon, Major League Baseball games will officially count for the 2021 season standings. The Braves’ Outfield is the Best in Baseball. Their writers, specifically over at Rotographs, their sister site focused on fantasy baseball, all made a series of “Bold Predictions” … The author is about to provide, in this internet post, no fewer than one bold predictions in re Zack Greinke, the very talented right-hander who makes his debut for the Angels this afternoon following a recent trade that sent prospects Jean Segura, Ariel Pena, and Johnny Hellweg to Milwaukee. Next, Bauer’s walk rate was easily a career low, and while control does tend to improve with age, he owns a career 9.0% mark, so it would be silly to think that 73 innings tells us a whole lot about his current true talent control skills. According to my xK% equation, he outperformed by 4.6%, which is pretty significant. Perhaps I wasn’t bold enough? This isn’t super bold, but it needs to be put out into the universe. 4. Now, his velocity has been up 2.8 MPH, looking closer to where it sat during his 2016 and 2017 seasons. Hopefully you enjoyed my earlier bold predictions piece earlier today. Coors field reduces strikeouts and increases BABIP, which could be enough to push Cron’s batting average close to Guerrero’s. But often what separates elite aces from regular pitchers is how good they are at limiting HR with baserunners. Let me know your Bold Predictions in the comments. You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. Park Factors Four Bold(ish) Predictions for the National League (FanGraphs) Dodgers: 3 Young Arms That Could Start the Season in Triple-A (Dodgers Nation) Locked On Dodgers: Projecting the Opening Day Roster, Plus Kenley Jansen and Prospects (Baseball Essential) Stetson Allie Has Come Full Circle, and at Age 30, He Looks Legit (FanGraphs) Archives. It has been a few years since I did a bold predictions piece here on Rotographs. Fangraphs’ ZiPS has Olson projected as one of the top first basemen in the game and also has him projected to hit 38 long balls. Naturally, I use my Pod Projections to identify players with that 80th-90th percentile upside to vault to the top of the category mountains. There’s a lot that needs to go right here, but the velocity rebound is the first step. For one thing, they’re hard! Opening day is upon us! Hopefully the 2021 season will proceed without major interruptions. But, alas — draft season is over. Since 2017, Cordero has recorded just 315 plate appearances. The reports … fangraphs.com - Most of the time, I don’t like to make predictions. That obviously doesn’t bode well for his chances of getting the PAs necessary to come close to these targets. Most of the time, I don’t like to make predictions. The 2020 MLB regular season has now concluded. Obviously, an xK% above 30% is still elite, but can he do it again if his fastball remains below a 94 MPH average? Mitch Keller Posts a Lower ERA than Lance Lynn. On the other hand, I expected to hit on several of my bold predictions, aiming for at least two to three correct calls. by Ben Clemens. Khris Davis will not contend for a batting title, and I won’t consider that. Last year, his fastball velocity was down and his SwStk% was in line with his previous two seasons, and yet his strikeout rate skyrocketed to a career best. It is now time to share my 2021 bold predictions with you. Franchy Cordero Hits 25 Homers and Steals 10 Bases. So he was an obvious sleeper heading into 2020. by Retrosheet. I thought I was pretty down on Dylan Bundy heading into the season, but had no idea my projections were still significantly better than the rest of the systems. Last, he has become an extreme fly ball pitcher and has struggled with home runs at times. What follows are my 10 bold predictions for 2017. Tell me what you think. I have nothing against Vaughn as a prospect and potential future star. The other big problem with making predictions is that they’re usually wrong if they’re bold. Can you imagine how excited we would be about a Rockies prospect coming off that kind of minor league season?! My definition of a bold prediction is one that lies roughly in the 70 th to 90 th range of percentile possible outcomes. He also destroyed minor league pitching. Sam Hilliard Hits 25 Homers and Steals 15 Bases. Keller has now endured a pair of bizarre seasons to open his career. It’s more like it makes me wonder why he doesn’t just pitch out of the stretch all the time. Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. Hot takes are famously a huge part of the sports industrial complex, but here at FanGraphs, we’re not very good at them. So far, it sounds like he might be reversing that trend, and it therefore shouldn’t be very difficult for him to beat Steamer’s projection, which would be the second lowest mark of his career. It is typically a fun piece to do and people like them, but I have found that I am so focused on drafts and other content at this time of year, that I just run out of time. Hot takes are famously a huge part of the sports industrial complex, but here at FanGraphs, we’re not very good at them. It’s Bold Prediction season! After debuting in 2016 with an average fastball velocity of 93.3 MPH, Sean Manaea has seen the pitch’s speed steadily decline below 91 MPH. Boston, of course! and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Forgive me if I am not as bold as I should be as it has been a while since I have done one of these, but I hope you enjoy them! And yet, we can’t be confident Hilliard will even start every day, or start against left-handers. Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download. Player B: 18 HR, 21 SBs, .275 avg. Some predictions stem from my own personal analysis on the player, or of a team situation. During his 2019 debut he averaged 95.5 MPH with his fastball, which led to a strong strikeout rate. This one will be a tad bit bolder. FanGraphs Membership. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Like Ryu and Teheran, Lynn has made a living of beating his SIERA, thanks to a career single digit HR/FB rate. Remember last year, when we essentially had two distinct baseball draft seasons (in February/March as well as in June/July)? Sure, he was pretty awesome over those 73 innings, posting a 2.94 SIERA, which was a career best. Man, talk about recency bias! ... Ariel Cohen’s 2021 Bold Predictions; Ariel Cohen’s 2021 Bold Predictions. by Ben Clemens. Brown was the Astros 5th round selection in the 2019 draft. Help Support FanGraphs. Hunter Renfroe Bats .260 and Knocks 35 Homers. 10 Bold Predictions for Michael Simione - Flipboard. Four Bold(ish) Predictions for the American League. A large number of our fantasy baseball drafts and auctions this year were shifted to virtual venues. If I had more time recently (which I hadn’t) and if I were more consideration (which I’m not), I would have published these bold predictions sooner so you, the reader, could act decisively on them in drafts as you saw fit. Scott Strandberg: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/scott-strandbergs-bold-predictions-for-2015/ 3/10. Don’t forget, he’s still only 30 years old. Last year, Correa was the fifth-best shortstop in … Last, dd you realize that Renfroe’s career high at-bat total is just 445? Four Bold(ish) Predictions for the National League (FanGraphs) by Ben Clemens March 18, 2021. Since the White Sox figure to be in the thick of the playoff race, I don’t know if they will be patient with Vaughn if he’s not hitting and/or butchering his left field chances. ... Those are my bold predictions for the A's in 2021. Four Bold(ish) Predictions for the American League (FanGraphs) by Ben Clemens March 17, 2021. fangraphs.com - 1) Zach Eflin is the Matthew Boyd of 2020. Other nuggets arise from blind optimism or the crossing of my fingers. It’s obviously a tiny sample and he was just 21 years old, but Vaughn’s BABIPs so far suggest he’ll have trouble converting balls in play into hits. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. That’s a significant spike. Bottom line is that while I’m certainly not projecting an ERA over 4.00, I think the odds of it happening are far higher than owners believe, given his draft day cost. ... Four Bold(ish) Predictions for the American League. Again, make sure they are actually bold – something a player has never done or a fall off that no one is seeing coming, except you. For my bold predictions, going to go with an Ottoneu focus. Yet, he hasn’t even seen a pitch above the High-A level! All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. I took a crack at some American League bold predictions yesterday, but honestly, they were pretty bland. Nolan Arenado hits .300 with 25 HR. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email. by Jeremy Blachman. Stay. fangraphs.com - It’s Bold Prediction season! He shuts it down and I think that has a lot to do with keeping his LOB very high among other indicator metrics. March 2021 I have to admit, I am absolutely shocked by the hype and expectations heaped upon the top prospect. It’s worth remembering that before last year, he hasn’t posted an ERA higher than 4.49 over any reasonable sample. Starting this afternoon, Major League Baseball games will officially count for the 2021 season standings. I gotta squeak in these predictions before or, uh. The Eloy Jimenez injury means that Vaughn is now likely to open the season in the Majors. The amount of public information out there is borderline … fangraphs.com • 20d. Justin Dunn hasn’t been able to find the plate this Spring and might not even make the team, let alone the rotation. Those are not bold predictions – those are impossible ones. Cron, on the other hand, is going 151st overall, even though Coors Field as his new home park seemingly gives him the same category potential as Guerrero. Bold prediction season is the best. For one thing, they’re hard! Top prospect Casey Mize was quite disappointing in his 2020 debut over seven starts, and his minor league track record didn’t provide for a lot of hope of a strong strikeout rate. The amount of public information out there is borderline overwhelming. Tell me what you think. And let’s get right to it. The baffling thing is that Guerrero is going just ahead of Jose Abreu, who has already done what fantasy owners are hoping the former will do! After a 60-game short season in 2020, baseball looks to drive us just a bit closer towards normalcy. Timing maybe. As usual, the ATC Projections have helped shape much of what is to come in this article. March 30, 2021. He HAS been better with the bases empty, by a bit, yes. ... 10 Bold Predictions for Michael Simione. Beat the Shift Podcast – Bold Predictions Episode w/ Scott Pianowski. No idea. Donate to FanGraphs. As I have in the previous battles, I’ll begin with the high-priced option. by Mike Podhorzer. By season’s end, the two stat lines shouldn’t look very different, assuming Cron remains healthy and bats in the middle of the Rockies lineup. I know some people do downside bold predictions, but I’m especially bad at those. … Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. by Ben Clemens. Most of the time, I don’t like to make predictions. Teheran belonged in the velocity surger table above, but I decided to separate him instead for his own bold prediction. 1. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The goal here isn’t to nail 100% of these, they just don’t have a high enough probability to expect such a success rate, … Paul Sporer’s Bold Predictions for 2021 - … Somehow, some way, Ryu has become a bonafide SIERA beater. Raimel Tapia will not lead the majors in homers, and I won’t predict that. In that case, I remind you that these are bold predictions. Four Bold(ish) Predictions for the American League (FanGraphs) by Ben Clemens March 17, 2021. If you compare other pitchers out of the stretch you will find that the production is typically terrible. 1. See: Trevor Rosenthal. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. If done right, one should expect to hit on some 10-30% of all bold predictions in the long-term. Last year, two of my ten bold predictions came to fruition. I took a crack at some American League bold predictions yesterday, but honestly, they were pretty bland. Corey Kluber and Michael Brantley will finish the year as top-5 MVP candidates but the Indians will not make the postseason. The good news is that Statcast confirms he has maintained last year’s velocity spike, so I’m bullish his luck will neutralize and then he’s not much different than Ryu. Ariel Cohen’s 2020 Bold Predictions – Recap. ... Davenport, FiveThirtyEight and FanGraphs… I took a crack at some American League bold predictions yesterday, but honestly, they were pretty bland. Any more outlandish than 10% would be miraculous, while any more probable than 30% would be too easy a guess. So Ryu, especially at his price, never comes anywhere close to my roster, as I prefer to buy strong skills, rather than gamble on his LOB% remaining so elevated. Games. Donate to FanGraphs. March 2021 … Obviously, this new ball might really help fly ballers like Bauer, but it could also lead to more doubles and triples, totally offsetting the fewer homers. But I’m sure as heck not going to pay for that upside scenario. Become a Member No Thanks Already a member? My definition of a bold prediction is one that lies roughly in the 70 th to 90 th range of percentile possible outcomes. Four Bold (ish) Predictions for the National League. He’s another SIERA beater, and he’s done it with a suppressed BABIP, which he may need again to get this prediction right. He only has three small samples in his three MLB seasons (263, 343, and 224 PA), but he has improved his wRC+ each year – 103, 124, and 135 – and I see him poised for a full season breakout. Last, With Jimenez out, Vaughn might open the season as the team’s starting left fielder, even though he has only played first base professionally. Gift a Membership. Log In. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. Four Bold(ish) Predictions for the National League. 2. ... Those are my bold predictions for the A's in 2021. Hopeless Joe’s Ten Bold Predictions. 1. On the other hand, I expected to hit on several of my bold predictions, aiming for at least two to three correct calls. Hot takes are famously a huge part of the sports industrial complex, but here at FanGraphs, we’re not very good at them. Jorge Soler will hit 30 HR with 100 RBI. On the other hand, Steven Matz endured a nightmare 2020, posting an unbelievable 9.68 ERA over 30.2 innings. I guess that’s why I still managed to roster him in two of four leagues! While I doubt he’ll get his velocity all the way back to its peak, a return to 92-93 MPH would be a big help and stave off that expected strikeout rate regression. FanGraphs Store. Like Teheran, Keller was an eighth Spring velocity surger that I pulled out, as betting on eight pitchers to beat their Steamer projected K% marks seemed immensely difficult. 2021 Updated In-Season Projections Four Bold(ish) Predictions for the National League. The skills have always been so-so, so you’re betting that HR/FB rate suppression continues, which is never something I would bet on. After enjoying a velocity surge in 2017, Mike Minor’s velocity has dropped closer and closer toward his 2010-2014 levels since, and tied with his career low last season. He sports a career 3.90 ERA because he’s only posted a sub-4.00 ERA twice, and one of those seasons was just a third (last year). April 1, 2021. That’s huge and should allow him to easily beat Steamer’s projected K%, which is forecasting his lowest mark since 2017. Ah, yes — that time of year already. Researchers — how often has this happened for a hitter? This one will be a tad bit bolder. Well, pitching significantly better out of the stretch isn’t completely unprecedented. Mike Podhorzer’s 2021 Bold Predictions. If I’m not too optimistic yet about his bat, he would need to be excellent defensively to justify keeping him in the Majors. Andrew Vaughn is Demoted to the Minors by End of June. Looking at the datasets has told me there are some things to note. Player A: 15 HR, 25 SBs, .256 avg. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, He had a stellar first half of 2019 and the high …. Last Thursday, I shared my bold hitter league leaders, and then yesterday my bold pitcher league leaders. Four Bold(ish) Predictions for the National League (FanGraphs) by Ben Clemens March 18, 2021. Fangraphs is a wonderful site full of writers who are much smarter, and know a lot more about baseball, sabermetrics, and predictive modeling than I do. It’s the LOB%! The amount of public information out there is borderline … fangraphs.com - Ben Clemens • 18d. Dan Haren proves to be the Dodgers’ most valuable starter. Andrew Heaney’s fastball has never averaged over 93 MPH and yet he has still posted a strikeout rate of at least 24% every season since 2016 (yeah yeah, tiny tiny sample size that year). Because these are bold, I automatically disqualify players I don’t personally believe would be considered bold or is already projected to finish top five in the category. Over five years, he managed only 111 innings between injuries. The baffling thing is he did that while throwing his fastball at a career best velocity, and posting the highest strikeout rate and SwStk% mark of his career. by Handedness, Beat the Shift Podcast – Bold Predictions Episode w/ Scott Pianowski, https://media.blubrry.com/rotographs/p/cdn-podcasts.fangraphs.com/Beat_the_Shift-Episode-2021-04-01.mp3, Chad Young’s Ten Bold Ottoneu Predictions, Alex Chamberlain’s Seven Bold Predictions for 2021, Discussion of Risk and Risk-Adjusted Pricing. Carlos Correa will be the best shortstop in baseball. by Ben Clemens. Just a chance to lay it on the line and lean in on the guys I am most excited about (or most unexcited about). Clearly that should have been bold prediction #1. by Handedness, Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance. Ryu seems to be one of those guys that have better success than most pitchers. That means a trip to the minors to get the upper minors experience he hasn’t received yet. Dylan Bundy will be the ace he was always supposed to be. He brings rare elite contact ability, plus strong plate patience, for a youngster, with the promise of future power. And, in retrospect, should have. Support FanGraphs. I’m already skeptical about hitters who jump straight from Double-A to the Majors, so you could imagine my pessimism going from High-A to the Majors. So his appearance here doesn’t mean I automatically think he’ll be good. March 18, 2021. One of the keys to his season besides keeping his strikeouts in check is posting a respectable FB%. Rockies bury another young player or let sam Hilliard Play and just see what they?... Adp or better four leagues number two pitcher in Cleveland predictions yesterday but! Easy a guess, Projecting X 2.0: how to Forecast baseball player Performance Correa will be anonymous hope is. Without Major interruptions B … four bold ( ish ) predictions for 2013 season besides keeping his strikeouts check. 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Green Monster Beat the Shift podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball articles that I had ever written the...... those are not bold predictions – Recap baseball Writer of the stretch you find... Has strike out often, but it needs to hit on some 10-30 % of all bold predictions not. Babip and low LOB % meant his SIERA, which was a career single digit HR/FB rate another player. Alex Chamberlain ’ s why I still managed to roster him in two of my bold. Leader named, because wins are silly and unpredictable Sports Info Solutions | Download some American bold. 2018 edition provided by Sports Info Solutions it has been up 2.8 MPH, closer. T super bold, but honestly, they were pretty bland him Win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed League. Had two distinct baseball draft seasons ( in February/March as well as in June/July ) %... Of fantasy baseball articles that I feel will happen if things break just right necessary to in. T be confident Hilliard will even start every day, or start against left-handers bold ( ish predictions. ( based on articles/tweets ) jump in fastball velocity during Spring Training League data! Flag a comment by clicking its flag icon are my bold hitter League leaders in each of the time another...
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