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You can also check out Exit Poll Results and Analysis from Key Battleground States. ABC News/Washington Post pre-election polls indicated that, apart from partisanship and ideology, Clinton’s success is dependent on turnout among women, college-educated whites (especially college-educated white women), nonwhites and young voters. Be sure to check back for the latest. Thirty percent say their family’s financial situation has improved in the last four years, but about as many, 27 percent, say it has gotten worse. Asked the most important attribute (of four choices) to them, 70 percent of Trump voters pick a candidate who “can bring needed change.” As many Clinton voters pick either experience (41 percent) or good judgment (28 percent). Exit polls from the 2016 presidential election show that white voters overwhelmingly chose Donald Trump, regardless of class, education and gender. In preliminary national exit poll results 54 percent of voters see Clinton unfavorably, and 61 percent say the same of Trump. Updated Nov. 29, 2016. There’s no indication in early results of increased turnout among non-college whites, Trump’s core group. In terms of vote share, C Voter shows a negative 2.6 percent swing for the TMC from the 2016 elections, taking its vote share to 42.1 percent. You also agree to our Terms of Service. These flaws in the exit polls have led to flaws in the way 2016 has been interpreted by analysts and political strategists, as the New York Times’ Thomas Edsall pointed out. Senate. Bookmark this page to get the latest national exit poll data and analysis. Whatever their divisions, many voters share a sense of frustration with the political situation. ABC News' Amna Nawaz and LZ Granderson talk with conservative commentator Amy Holmes, FiveThirtyEigiht's Walt Hickey and Farai Chideya after Donald Trump is projected to be the president-elect of the United States. 2016 Election Forecast. The TMC, as per the CVoter Exit Poll, is projected to secure a narrow win with 158 seats, with a loss of around 53 seats as compared to the 2016 elections. "That" is the wild ride of the 2016 primary season, and ABC News exit polls conducted across the primaries provide illuminating answers. More young voters, … Trump wins. Clinton also won the national exit poll by 3.2% and won the national vote count … Among the 5 percent of voters who supported someone other than Trump or Clinton, most -- 56 percent -- said they wouldn't have voted at all if those two were their only choice. On November 8, 2016, Edison Research engaged in the largest single-day research project in the world: Exit Polling the nation on behalf of the National Election Pool (NEP). Election 2016 National Exit Poll Results and Analysis. BJP: 138-148 seats; TMC: 128-138 seats; Left: 11-21 seats; Others: 0; Party wise seat share. Not surprisingly, Clinton and Trump voters differ widely on these immigration policy issues. Tamil Nadu Assembly elections 2021 Exit polls: What happened in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections 2016? Statista. Expectations, though still not great, are better than they’ve been: In preliminary results, 37 percent of voters think the next generation will be worse off, but 33 percent think it will be better off, again the least negative differential since 2000. The gender gap so far appears to be historic -- the widest in exit polls back to 1976. Over 2.74 crore Keralites voted for the 140-seat Kerala legislative assembly. Exit polls 2016: West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry decide - The Economic Times See our Privacy Policy and Third Party Partners to learn more about the use of data and your rights. Some 57 percent of urban voters say that they rate the economy negatively. Preliminary exit poll results indicate that the economy/jobs is the top issue for voters (52 percent), followed by terrorism (18 percent), foreign policy (13 percent) and immigration (12 percent). The 37% youth support for the Republican candidate in 2016 equals the support garnered by Mitt Romney in 2012. Forty-six percent say the next president’s policies should be more conservative that Obama’s. Early turnout across partisan lines looks quite similar to 2012, 37 percent Democrats, 32 percent Republicans. View exit poll results and analysis for the 2016 Iowa Republican Caucus. Updated Nov. 9, 2016. Eighty-one percent of Trump voters think Obamacare “went too far.” Half of Clinton voters think it didn’t go far enough. Trump incites greater fear than Clinton, especially among women: 43 percent of women say they’d feel scared if Trump were elected, compared with 31 percent of men. Kerala Elections Exit Polls 2016 The voting for Kerala assembly election concluded on April 6 at 6pm. Both reached record levels of unpopularity for presidential candidates, with sharp divisions on their fitness for office on items such as qualifications, temperament and honesty. Women outnumber men in … That's compared to 63 percent of suburban and 71 percent of rural respondents who said that they believed it was on the wrong track. The divisions are profound. With these states Clinton wins the Electoral College with a count of 306 versus 232 for Trump. 1.2.5 Ballot Order Effects Political methodologists have documented a small but non-trivial bias in favor of candidates listed first on election ballots (e.g., Ho and Imai 2008; Miller and Krosnick 1998; Pasek et al. Trump’s treatment of women and Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of state have been highly controversial issues. Trump voters are more united when it comes to building a wall along the border with Mexico -- 74 percent support it. If data are subsequently re-weighted by the National Election Pool (NEP), the consortium of news organizations that conducts the exit polls, the numbers reported here may differ slightly from figures accessible through the websites … See our, Read a limited number of articles each month, You consent to the use of cookies and tracking by us and third parties to provide you with personalized ads, Unlimited access to washingtonpost.com on any device, Unlimited access to all Washington Post apps, No on-site advertising or third-party ad tracking. Sixty-nine percent are dissatisfied with the way the government is working, including 23 percent who are angry about it — a sentiment especially prevalent among Trump voters. This is preliminary data and can change -- sometimes materially -- as the evening progresses. 2016 Election exit polls Exit poll results from National Election Pool As polls closed nationwide Tuesday night, see how voters from different backgrounds across the nation cast their ballots. This preliminary analysis reflects data for 2016 as published by CNN.com as of 11 a.m. on Nov. 9, 2016. Among Clinton supporters, 72 percent are scared of Trump in office; among Trump voters, 60 percent are scared of what Clinton would do. In the 2016 election, a wide gap in presidential preferences emerged between those with and without a college degree. For Republicans, it … If you're using the ABC News mobile app, star this page so you can get back to it easily. Still, 24 percent of voters say they made their choice in the last month. View exit poll results and analysis for the 2016 Pennsylvania, __raceType__, election. In 2011 Assembly elections, the exit polls had correctly predicted clean … We rely on readers like you to uphold a free press. Here's an explanation about how exit polling works, how they're conducted and what kind of questions are asked: Vote 2016: How Exit Polls Work. In the 2016 Assembly election, the CPI(M)-led LDF had won 91 seats, while the Congress-led UDF had won 47 seats. Amber Arnold/Wisconsin State Journal/AP Photo. These flaws in the exit polls have led to flaws in the way 2016 has been interpreted by analysts and political strategists, as the New York Times’ Thomas Edsall pointed out. Trump needs turnout from men, whites overall, non-college-educated whites (especially non-college-educated white men) and evangelical white Christians. Trump supporters only split on deportation -- 50 percent think illegal immigrants working in the U.S. should be offered a chance to apply for legal status, 45 percent think they should be deported. Women outnumber men in 2016 early results, as they have since 1984. And if you're curious about congressional races, we've got you covered for the Senate and the House. An aggregate of eight exit polls predicts that Mamata Banerjee may make it past the majority mark with 152 seats but her comfort factor will largely depend on … And when it comes to belief that the economy is on the wrong track, 53 percent of urban respondents said that they believed it was. And 49 percent say the government’s doing too many things best left to individuals and business, similar to most previous elections. Eight years on from the Great Recession, 62 percent of voters in preliminary exit poll results still rate the economy negatively — “not good” or “poor.” Still, that’s well down from 76 percent in 2012 and a vast 93 percent in 2008. There’s a big difference, though by candidate support, with Clinton’s supporters relatively more focused on the economy and foreign policy, Trump’s on terrorism and immigration. Only 15 percent say it’s “someone who cares about people like me.” Among Clinton supporters, experience and judgment are most important, while among Trump supporters, it’s nearly all about change. Chart. Exit polls have historically and throughout the world been used as a check against, and rough indicator of, ... For example, in the May round of the 2016 Austrian presidential election, exit polls correctly pointed to a narrow lead for Norbert Hofer among those who voted at a polling station. Exit Poll Results and Analysis from Key Battleground States. The state of the economy relates to these sentiments. For the latest exit poll data from the ABC News Analysis Desk, be sure to bookmark and refresh this page. AIADMK under J. Jayalalithaa won the elections and became the first ruling party to be re-elected in Tamil Nadu since 1984, though with a reduced majority. We have data just since 2004, but this is the widest GOP margin among white evangelicals in that time. That's compared to 63 percent of suburban voters who were asked the same question, and 72 percent of rural voters. (Note: Interviews representing as much as 40 percent of the national exit poll were conducted in advance of the FBI’s announcement Sunday that it’s renewed review found nothing to warrant criminal charges against Clinton.). The 13 most amazing findings in the 2016 exit poll President-elect Donald Trump pledges to accomplish “spectacular things for the American people” as House Speaker Paul Ryan sits by his side. Louis Post-Dispatch/AP Photo, Shelby Lum/Richmond Times-Dispatch via AP. exit polls. Exit poll results of Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2016: Poll of polls predict a tough fight down the line between AIADMK & DMK. Share on Facebook. An aggregate of eight exit polls predicts that Mamata Banerjee may make it past the majority mark with 152 seats but her comfort factor will largely depend on … Sixty-one percent of voters in preliminary exit poll results say the country’s on the wrong track. By ABC NEWS ANALYSIS DESK and PAUL BLAKE. Forty-four percent of Trump voters say their financial situation is worse than it was four years ago; 47 percent of Clinton voters say their finances have improved. The Tamil Nadu Assembly elections were held in single phase on 16 May 2016. €5 every 4 weeks or just €50 €20 for the first year, €7 every 4 weeks or just €70 €30 for the first year. When it comes to who they trust to handle the economy, Clinton-Trump, urban respondents went 57-37 percent for Clinton, while suburban respondents went 44-49 percent. The exit poll also asks which of four other candidate qualities are most important. Again, these are early results, but it’s worth keeping an eye on and would be another Clinton advantage if it holds. Nearly twice as many women as men say they’d feel excited by a Clinton win, 22 vs. 12 percent, respectively. But while Democrats had hoped to unlock new portions of the electorate and counted on lopsided support from voters of color, the most movement from 2016 … College-educated white women are by far Clinton’s strongest group among whites. But of the remaining 44 percent, slightly more say they would have voted for Clinton than for Trump. November 9, 2016. Substantial numbers say both Clinton and Trump are not honest and trustworthy — 59 percent in Clinton’s case and 65 percent in Trump’s. What did the exit polls tell us about the 2016 electorate? Among Trump supporters, 96 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Mar. And 28 and 24 percent of Trump and Clinton voters, respectively, don’t feel their own candidate is honest and trustworthy. By clicking “I agree” below, you consent to the use by us and our third-party partners of cookies and data gathered from your use of our platforms. The turnout was an increase from the 2011 Assembly election figure of 75%.. Early exit poll results show a record level of turnout among college-educated voters, 50 percent versus 50 percent non-college-educated voters. The UK has voted to leave the EU by 52% to 48%. Share on Pinterest. Twelve percent of Clinton voters say the same of their candidate. Exit polls released by the national election consortium Edison Research (accessed November 11, 2020) allow for national- and state-level comparisons with those from 2016. Chart. That’s similar to its level in 2012 when Barack Obama won re-election and down from 75 percent in 2008 at the peak of the economic crisis, but well above its level from 1996 to 2004. Mark Crispin Miller, Professor of Media, Culture, and Communication at NYU, and author of "Fooled Again: The Real Case for Electoral Reform" has noted that the American public generally demurs from placing importance on exit polls due to a long history of elections veering from the exit poll … The counting of votes for the Kerala Assembly Elections 2021 is scheduled to take place on May 2. The exit polls for the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections has projected a … We're also tracking possible voting irregularities throughout the day. Despite the frantic finish and a series of major events near the end of the race, 75 percent of voters say they decided on their vote more than a month ago. Again pessimism is far higher among Trump supporters. Previous positive and negative anticipation peaked in 2008, when 37 percent of voters were excited about an Obama presidency and 33 percent were scared about McCain. Comparable numbers in 2012 were 46 for Barack Obama and 50 for Mitt Romney. Fifty-four percent of voters approve of the job Obama is doing as president, 34 percent strongly so in preliminary exit poll results. Those decline to 37 percent and 34 percent for Trump, respectively, in these preliminary exit poll results. Exit polls from the 2016 presidential election showed Hillary Clinton winning four crucial swing states that, when the final vote tallies came in, were actually won by Donald Trump. Share on LinkedIn. We use cookies and other technologies to customize your experience, perform analytics and deliver personalized advertising on our sites, apps and newsletters and across the Internet based on your interests. Voters line up in voting booths to cast their ballots at Robious Elementary School in Chesterfield, Virginia, Nov. 8, 2016. "Exit polls of the 2016 presidential elections in the United States on November 9, 2016, percentage of votes by military service." It’s the first time “better” has outnumbered “worse” on this question since 2004 and the lowest “getting worse” result since 2000. On November 8, 2016, Edison Research engaged in the largest single-day research project in the world: Exit Polling the nation on behalf of the National Election Pool (NEP). Bookmark this page to get the latest national exit poll data and analysis. By clicking “I agree” below, you consent to the use by us and our third-party partners of cookies and data gathered from your use of our platforms. Voters split roughly evenly on whom they trust more to handle the economy (46 percent say Clinton versus 48 percent who pick Trump), while Clinton has a clear advantage on foreign policy (53 percent versus 42 percent) and a slimmer one on serving as commander in chief (49 percent of versus 46 percent). REBECCA LAI NOV. 8, 2016 Updated as results become available. 2016 Election exit polls. Just 28 percent of Trump voters say they’re very confident their votes will be counted accurately versus 68 percent of Clinton voters. Share via Email. If you're looking for something else to read while you wait, be sure to check our live blog and read up on the 10 Storylines to Watch on Election Day. On the flip side, just 13 percent are excited about a possible Trump presidency in preliminary exit poll results; 37 percent, scared of it. Here's further evidence of the unpopularity of these candidates: 20 percent of Trump’s own voters nonetheless view him unfavorably. For example, 92 percent of Trump’s supporters feel the country’s on the wrong track and 88 percent are dissatisfied with the how the government’s working, or angry about it. White evangelical Christians make up 27 percent of voters in preliminary exit poll results, similar to 2012, and a very strong group for Trump in pre-election polling. Please enable cookies on your web browser in order to continue. That's a much closer margin than Obama experienced in 2008 (66 to 32 percent) or 2012 (60 to 37 percent). And more oppose rather than support one of Trump’s signature policies, building a wall along Mexican border (54 percent versus 40 percent) in preliminary exit poll results. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump After 50 of 50 states. Source: NEP national Exit Poll 2012, 2016 To understand why pollsters could perhaps get by without weighting on education in an “U-shape” election like 2012 but not a linear election like 2016, consider the post-graduate results. Find out more about page archiving. exit polls are surveys of a small percentage of voters taken after they leave their voting place. Turnout and vote margins among these groups will be worth watching tonight. Thiruvananthapuram: Times Now-C-Voter exit poll suggests the return of the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left government in Kerala. A staff of over 3,000 exit poll interviewers, precinct vote return reporters, call center workers, and analysts all across the country helped us provide the sole record … The new European data protection law requires us to inform you of the following before you use our website: We use cookies and other technologies to customize your experience, perform analytics and deliver personalized advertising on our sites, apps and newsletters and across the Internet based on your interests. Chris Lee/St. The DMK-alliance on the other hand, improves its 2016 performance by seven per cent, from 41 to 48 per cent in the exit poll for the Tamil Nadu Assembly election concluded recently. If the gender gap that was evident in pre-election polling holds tonight, it’ll be an advantage for Clinton. National polls for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The overall voter turnout was 84.72%, which set a new record for Assam. About 20 percent of urban respondents said that they were worse off financially than they were in 2012. Early exit polls can’t always tell us who voted — but they can show us what messages voters are picking up from candidates. Exit Polls Can Be Misleading — Especially This Year By Laura Bronner and Nathaniel Rakich. Updated Nov. 8, 2016. President. Exit polls from the 2016 presidential election show that white voters overwhelmingly chose Donald Trump, regardless of class, education and gender. Thus, polls weighting to past exit poll parameters may have missed the mark in 2016. A staff of over 3,000 exit poll interviewers, precinct vote return reporters, call center workers, and analysts all across the country helped us provide the sole record … How the vote has shifted. The gender gap in presidential vote preference is among the widest in exit polls dating back to 1972. The National Exit Poll suggests that the actual split in the election was 55% for Clinton to 37% for Trump (an 18-point gap) among youth aged 18-29. Much of the campaign focused on Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s personal qualities. However, it is not dramatically higher than in some other recent elections, including the 2000 contest between Bush and Al Gore. Given their unpopularity, Clinton and Trump alike are seeing lukewarm support — including many voters who chiefly oppose their opponent rather than supporting them. Polling data an expert results 54 percent of Trump supporters, 96 percent have unfavorable... Center on the Near East Side of Madison, Wis., Nov. 8, 2016 Half of Trump What in... For Kerala Assembly election figure of 75 % 2016 early results like expert... Would have voted for the 2016 presidential election show that white voters overwhelmingly chose Trump... 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And Third Party Partners to learn more about the 2016 presidential election that. Campaign focused on Hillary Clinton and 42 percent for Trump, respectively 2.74 crore Keralites voted for the latest exit. April 6 at 6pm Clinton than for Trump has been archived and is no Updated. An exit poll data also reveals some interesting nuggets about division and unpopularity polls Produced JON! It easily on rural, suburban and urban attitudes and views Privacy Policy and Third Party to. Among women, Trump ’ s about the prospect of a Clinton win, 22 vs. percent! Poll results say the next government in the state of the white vote in Florida in the suburbs 36... S personal qualities and without a college degree, 22 vs. 12 percent respectively! Respondents said that they rate the economy relates to these sentiments Post-Dispatch/AP Photo Shelby. More voters say that incumbent AIADMK will lose power and the House and Trump are! 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