With the 2021 Buffalo Sabres, there’s optimism wrapped up in the uncertainty of how the offseason forward acquisitions improve the Sabres in the standings in a strong Eastern Division. Unlike other projections you might see (from sources like Dom Luszczyszyn, Micah McCurdy, and Sean Tierney for example), the standings and point projections are based on a projected full-season Wins Above Replacement provided by each player in a certain amount of ice time determined by their spot in the depth chart. Am I confident enough to put my fist on the table and tell you I know where the Sabres will finish this season? It will be interesting to see, how well it predicts future results – both season results and single game results. Dom Luszczyszyn is a national NHL reporter for The Athletic who writes primarily about hockey analytics and new ways of looking at the game. Next season, Pettersson, Svechnikov, and Makar are projected to be worth 2.9, 2.5, and 3.4 wins respectively per Dom Luszczyszyn’s GSVA model. I used articles from www.theathletic.com in this piece. Pessimistic Interpretation: With that, the optimism is out of my system, and we return to acknowledging that the East Division has the offensive star power to overcome a still bad, even if better, defense, and Steve Smith remains in charge of last year’s 30th ranked penalty killing team that has lost Johan Larsson (UFA) and Zemgus Girgensons (IR) before opening puck drop, and with Jeff Skinner away from the top 6 in the more recent training camp practices, the coaching staff continues to double down on defensive-first hockey that misfits the personnel of the roster. All of this brings us back centered to the expectation of an evenly balanced point per game pace in the ironic shadow of last season’s quest for evenly balanced production out of their lines and pairings. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. A 56 game season opens the door for higher performance variance affecting the final standings. In simplest terms, probability density functions determine the probability that a random variable takes a given value – so in the context of this exercise, the probability that the Sabres finish with a specific number of points. — dom luszczyszyn (@domluszczyszyn) January 6, 2021 Here is what his model has for the Penguins as of today: Projected Points: 68.5 Projected division finish: … Overall the model did pretty good, but you would have liked it to be lower on Anaheim and higher on Boston, since that seemed predictable. Change ), Converting season projections to game Projections, Season Projections – First draft – Hockey-Statistics. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. Today, The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn used his GSVA model to evaluate every NHL team to date to see how much each team has changed thus far compared to last season and if it’s for the better or worse. Say, for example, I had a Wins Above Replacement model that told me that Jonathan Cheechoo was one of the best players in the league in the 2005–2006 season playing alongside Joe Thornton, contributing a total of 4 WAR which was good for 10th in the NHL. NHL Writer — The Athletic. I don’t think either team was this bad, but sometimes losses lead to more losses. We’re not taking layups here, the best case scenario is always winning the Stanley Cup and worst case is being last in the league. By the same ascension logic, while the defense remains flawed and returns the same 6 primary defenders as the season before, Colin Miller is the oldest defender at 28, so there is still an implication that personal improvement is expected for the whole group. The following season would turn out to be the toughest to predict. That’s because I used his projections from his team previews last time, but those were made well before the season started. All of my projections below are made well after the games were played, so the true test of the model will be its performance this upcoming season. The same goes for Linus Ullmark at age 27 and Carter Hutton following eye surgery. ll of this brings us back centered to the expectation of an evenly balanced point per game pace in the ironic shadow of last season’s quest for evenly balanced production out of their lines and pairings. While that’s not great, three of the four models had the projected fourth place finisher with less than a 95 point pace, so let’s look at the expected probabilities of reaching or exceeding the point totals that the fourth place teams in the Eastern Division received in each model. My projection model would have been first by a tiny margin. Dom has the Canucks at a 45% chance to make the playoffs, in his model Luszczyszyn: Canucks at 45%, in Dom's model, to make postseason - TSN.ca SUPER BOWL LV - … It’s also interesting to compare my projections with those from Dom’s model. Luszczyszyn deserves credit for improving the model over the past few years. Other player based projection models (like Dom Luszczyszyn’s model) are built in a Explaining the differences between the two models would require a very thorough analysis, so for now I will just leave it as it is. So I stepped away for a while & realized that this new model was actually my second attempt at recreating Dom Luszczyszyn’s Game Score he created for hockey back in 2016. San Jose being this bad probably came as a shock to most, and Detroit ended up 10 points below replacement level. As The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn noted in his player card, Bjorkstrand's success can largely be attributed to him playing in a more pronounced role.That tracks with our analysis, dating back to 2017. Dom’s work was based on valuation created by Matt Cane for a weighted shot model, my shifts in valuation were kept minimal to stay as consistent with this approach as possible. Thanks for reading! The model is the same for all ten seasons (from 10/11 to 19/20) and it’s based solely on data from the previous 3 seasons. There were a few surprises though. Again, my model would have been first and by a decent margin. Specifically, in June 2019, he wrote at The Athletic ($) that the Game Score formula needed improvement and explained what he did. Obviously, there’s no fame and glory in predicting results 4 years after they happened. data via Dom Luszczyszyn ( Log Out / [Matheson] Philip Broberg will return to Sweden after world juniors and won't be at Oiler camp, but will rejoin either The projections in this article are from opening night. Let’s dive into the specifics of what needs to happen for the Sabres to be successful or fall short of their goals. Dom Luszczyszyn Micah Blake McCurdy Sean Tierney TOTAL AVERAGE Toronto Maple Leafs 65.9 72.6 66.8 70.5 69.0 Montreal Canadiens 64.8 66.4 63.1 68.4 65.7 Calgary Flames 64.3 65.1 61.4 61.0 63.0 Edmonton Oilers 63.5 64.1 60.7 59.4 61.9 61.1 61.0 The goal here is to compare my projection model (read more here and here) to other models out there. I would also like to add an age curve to each player, so the age adjustment isn’t done on the team level. Here is a look at how Dom Luszczyszyn’s model sees this contract playing out. There’s nothing spectacular or innovative about this. Unfortunately, public projection models have the Sabres hovering around 56 points, which is in line with the previous season’s point per game pace pre-shutdown. Previously he’s also worked at The Hockey News, The Nation Network, and Hockey Graphs. Initially I used derivatives of Matt Cane’s weighted shots model, but opted for this route instead for simplicity New home. The review can be found here, if you have a subscription to the Athletic. A lot of the predictions had an error around 8 points. Improving our NHL projection model ahead of the 2019-20 season. Welcome to the world of the normal distribution: a range of possibilities centered around a most frequent expected value. Also no, but if projection models are centering expectations around the same as last season with a higher ceiling offense, it’s enough to maintain interest and get to know the teams around the Eastern Division to see if the Sabres will have enough to finish ahead of them. It’s probably fair to say that Vegas surprised everyone. Those parameters were used to sample 100,000 points from a normal distribution with the given means and standard deviations, and those points were plotted on the graph of the probability density functions below the table. 28.0k members in the EdmontonOilers community. By Dom Luszczyszyn Jun 14, 2019 58. How do we interpret this? Conclusion: On par with the theme, there’s a lot of ways the East could finish, and the while Sabres may be closer to the Rangers and Devils than the Capitals and Islanders, the gap is more narrow than it would be in an 82 game season. It’s also interesting that the model had no clear-cut contenders – MIN, NSH, PIT, S.J and WSH were all projected to get around 100 points. The table below shows the mean and standard deviation for the projection simulations from Charting Hockey, Evolving Wild, Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic, and HockeyViz. “Adapt or die.”. ( Log Out / I don’t think anyone could have foreseen that kind of season. A subreddit for the Edmonton Oilers of the National Hockey League. The model was too low on Colorado and Boston. translating analytics into english for @TheAthleticNHL / instagram: domluszczyszyn. Here’s how my model would have done. Among members of the hockey betting community, the predictive model used by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn is widely respected, and his 2021 numbers produce six teams whose chances of winning the Cup exceed the chances implied by their betting odds. Jack Eichel received Hart Trophy votes last season and is still only 24 on the ascending side of aging curves. Where the Canucks have improved the most this month, is in their efficiency on the powerplay. https://jfresh.substack.com/p/projecting-the-nhls-15-worst-contracts The puck drops Wednesday on the 56-game season with four new divisions, and futures wagering at legal sportsbooks is off and skating. Understanding the distribution of outcomes. They’ve got longer odds by MoneyPuck.com’s projection, at 9.7%, but that’s a probability the Canucks will gladly take given where they Same sheet. Calgary and NY Islanders were the two positive surprises. I would like the goaltender projections to work better, so I could put more weight on them. All projections are prorated to 82 games. Later this week, I will investigate further into the 2021 projections on Charting Hockey and HockeyViz for more hints on what to expect for the Sabres this year. On this episode, Dom Luszczyszyn (hockey journalist @ The Athletic & NHL Sports Bettor) stops by to discuss his NHL Betting model, how he got started, and why its difficult to provide valuable betting content and keep his NHL betting edge. Dom Luszczyszyn is a national NHL reporter for The Athletic who writes primarily about hockey analytics and new ways of looking at the game. Canada, Sports. Not just compared to the results, but also compared to consensus thinking. The Coyotes ranked seventh on Luszczyszyn’s list, meaning the model pegged them as the seventh-worst team in the NHL . Expansion Draft Protection | Asplund or Thompson? It would have been the second-best prediction, but way behind Cosica’s prediction. Am I confident enough to give an educated guess? With each of the four projection simulations, we can calculate the probability that the Sabres reach or exceed a given point total. For reference, while the 2018-19 Sabres were 10th in the conference following their 56th game (with games in hand from surrounding teams acknowledged, of course), their 63 points had them on a 92 point pace that would’ve exceeded any point total since their last playoff season (96 points) in 2011. It can be a vicious circle. Of these four models, only Micah has a greater than 50% chance the Sabres have a better record than last season. Here’s how other predictions went that season. As seen in: The Athletic, Sports Illustrated, FLARE Magazine, The Hockey News, Eyes on Isles. The projection model seems to predict results quite well, but the true testimony of the model will come next season. Let’s start off by looking at the 2016/2017 season. You’re not getting out of math that easily. Dom’s model was off by 37 points on Colorado. My model gave Tampa Bay the second highest point projection, but it was still way off. So while a smaller sample fogs analysis, as that year’s Sabres and their 76 point pace finished looking like nowhere close to a 92 point team, when the franchise’s short and long term future could depend on playoff contention this season, the fog is the price to pay. Verified. No. Overall, it was a fairly predictable season and most of the predictions were quite good. And here’s how my model would have projected the season: The one team that jumps at you right away is Colorado. The picture below here shows the performance of other predictions, and Dom’s review can be found here. Change ), You are commenting using your Twitter account. The WAR Roster Builder is not a simulation model. Dom Luszczyszyn. Most were bullish on Colorado before the start of the season – My model wasn’t. The picture is taken from Dom Luszcyszyn’s prediction review which can be found here. Dom Luszczyszyn’s Game Score Value Added (GSVA) model is notoriously bullish on the highly skilled Leafs, as evidenced by his standings projection from last season. They ended up with just 48 points which was historically bad. Since the threshold to make the playoffs usually sits between 95 and 100 points, the probability that the Sabres make the playoffs this season sits quite low, likely not exceeding 13%. An update: these projections are now available at The Athletic. The table below shows my projection (pPoints), Dom’s projection (Dom) and the difference between the two from the 2019/2020 season: On average the two models are 3.4 points apart, so there is some difference. What’s Next? While not an MVP candidate, Sam Reinhart in his age 25 season will get his first full time opportunity to drive a line. The observant reader might have noticed a difference between Dom’s projections in the previous article and this one. Dom Luszczyszyn, The Athletic First, we’ll take a look at Dom Luszczyszyn, the designated Math Boy of The Athletic. Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic joins Ryan Pinder in the Morning to discuss his probability model and what teams he likes to go far in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Optimistic Interpretation: The Sabres have an objectively better roster than last year solely by adding Taylor Hall to their top line. While there would be value in creating an Expected Buffalo projection model for the NHL season, I’m more interested in what the public models that have already been created tell us about the range of possibilities for the Sabres this year. My model would have been pretty high on them, but still way off. In my current model I expect goaltending to regress heavily towards average. Let’s jump to the most current season. In the end the model was wrong about most teams, but at least it was less wrong than most other predictions. ( Log Out / Some of that is probably because of goaltending. Although, according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s playoff chances model, Vancouver will have to maintain a similar pace over the rest of the season to have any chance of squeaking into the playoffs. Luszczyszyn (who would be the first to tell you that his model has perennially underestimated Washington... well, maybe the second to tell you that, after us), concluded his season preview with the following: I have refined the model to give the lowest average error and the correlation (R-squared). Evolving Wild’s Twitter, since their projections have been updated a few times this week. by dom luszczyszyn The Projections Posted on September 4, 2019 by omgitsdomi Hello everyone! Other than Colorado the model did okay, and it would have been the best prediction out there. — dom luszczyszyn (@domluszczyszyn) October 21, 2020 With that said, Luszczyszyn’s model ranked the Anaheim Ducks at fifth overall in added value through the 2020 free agency period so far : Anaheim Ducks Perhaps playing alongside Dubois and Alexandre Texier on the team's top line will allow the winger to crack the 18:00 average TOI mark for the first time in his career. They consistently get good/great goaltending, but the model expect them to regress every year. The model definitely still needs some work. I have refined the model to give the lowest average error and the correlation (R-squared). I’m using Dom Luszcyszyn’s end of the year reviews to compare my model … Vancouver now has a 25% chance of making the playoffs, according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s model published in The Athletic. ( Log Out / Sabres transition offense has transformed under Don Granato, Examining the Buffalo Sabres scoring turnaround, Cozens’ Rookie Metrics Compare Favorably To Eichel, Others, 2021 Sabres Preview: A team with a wide range of where they could finish, Jason Karmanos begins the Sabres front office reshuffle, Drake Caggiula provides the Sabres some post-deadline depth. 5x Stanley Cup Champions. 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Other predictions, and futures wagering at legal sportsbooks is off and skating below here shows performance! A 56 game season opens the door for higher performance variance affecting the final standings age. Article and this one projections in the Athletic and Boston the best prediction out there candidate, Sam Reinhart his. On Isles i have refined the model to give an educated guess first draft – Hockey-Statistics to the,! Be the toughest to predict results quite well, but the true of!
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