But in my defense here, New York City is more populous than all but 12 states has faced some of the biggest challenges from Covid and has a highly competitive primary in addition to completely revamping its voting process. We will, of course, keep people apprized of the situation there. You shouldn't read too much into it, really, where these things start to become predictive of the national environment and of the next midterm is in the aggregate. The 2021 New York City mayoral election will consist of Democratic and Republican primaries on June 22, 2021, followed by a general election on November 2, 2021. I mean, some of that even getting down to local school district level. And I think the important thing to say with these things again is that any one race could be subject to local factors. We'll see if that plays out. What are the contours of that race at this point? The 2021 New York City mayoral election will be held in November 2021. Fourth, Democrats will obviously hold. She's a contributor on MSNBC. You can get in touch by email us at podcasts at five thirty eight dotcom. Yeah, so there are four vacancies in the House left to be filled. She can't immediately seek reelection. And so that kind of creates this unpredictability about who is it going to be. So what other mayoral races are we watching here? He's brought that back a little bit since. There is Syracuse, New York, Raleigh, Rochester, Pittsburgh, Omaha. One is my home city of Boston where the old mayor, Marty Walsh, just became secretary of labor. Also with us is elections analyst Nathaniel Rakha, Nathaniel Hegland and elections analyst Jeffrey Skelley. In the first WPIX-TV/NewsNation/Emerson College poll of the New York City mayoral race, entrepreneur Andrew Yang leads the crowded Democratic primary with support from 32% of likely Democratic voters. Anyway, we're going to watch and see how this all plays out in Virginia and in California and to a lesser extent in New Jersey, if that does get competitive. A new poll, conducted before this week’s bombshell in the mayor’s race, shows the contest tightening as Eric Adams closes the gap with established frontrunner Andrew … And a recent Stockton University poll found that Murphy has a fifty nine percent approval rating and only thirty six percent of New Jerseyans disapprove of him. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Jeffrey, you're based in Virginia. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election … Yeah, I think that's right. But of course, creating a situation where you can vote yes on the recall and keep a Democratic governor takes away the incentive for Democrats to vote for Newsom. Let's move on from Virginia and talk about New Jersey and California, where there are other statewide and state legislative races this year Nathaniel. Transcript for Be Wary Of Exit Polls This Year (Well, And All Years) | FiveThirtyEight I'm me. So let's key in on that race first and foremost. So let's talk about the Democratic primary. Democrats also controversially tried and failed to pass a bill that would make it easier to get a third trimester abortion in the state. You have people like Maya Wiley, Scott Stringer Morales. Biden won New Jersey by 16 points instead of 10. Super Tuesday is March 3. The online poll surveyed 842 Democratic primary voters from Jan. 20 to 25 and has a 3.38 percentage-point margin of error. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! So that's the Republican side. Kirk Cox, longtime delegate in the House, former speaker of the House, and Pete Snyder, who's this tech entrepreneur who ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor in twenty thirteen but has been involved in Republican politics for a while, are probably the two most likely candidates. Yeah, I saw an article in the Minneapolis Post that essentially said a lot of people are getting in the race, in part because it seems like nobody wants to be mayor of Minneapolis right now. By SALLY GOLDENBERG. So let's let's figure out ways to make sure that doesn't happen again. Similarly for the new mayor of Burlington, there's Cleveland. And Newsom himself would probably not like that. And we see that Eric Adams, who is polling in second, his Brooklyn borough president, he's also a former police officer. But first. So the primary will be the first under this new ranked choice voting system, which, of course, is going to be interesting. And you're seeing right now the main competition between Andrew Young, who's kind of the celebrity extremely high name recognition, twenty twenty presidential candidate, and then Eric Adams, who is like kind of ideologically the Joe Biden of the race. But first, they're going to be a number of special elections for U.S. House seats in the coming months, particularly as a result of vacancies created by lawmakers who have gone to work for the Biden administration. The former New York mayor has also either stalled or lost support in Super Tuesday states, according to an analysis from FiveThirtyEight. So I think there's this question within the Texas Democratic Party writ large of, OK, what can we learn from 20, 20 and how can we apply that to these twenty, twenty one races. And I say that because there's certain messaging and issues that Republican candidates are keying in on that clearly relate to Trump. By a Republican gain. Of course. 19.3k members in the fivethirtyeight community. But Yang was in first place in all three of those polls and everyone else was struggling to break out of the low teens or single digits. I think generally nationally, the conventional wisdom is that a smaller electorate and a convention often favors ideologues. The now interior secretary's old seat, that's a pretty safe Democratic seat as well. That could lead to a lot of volatility in the poll another reason to be on or about it and that is in the race in the use of race or its. So as I mentioned, those include the regularly scheduled gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey and then the recall election in California. But even so, just those two primaries wouldn't necessarily be the start of a trend. But it looks like Nancy Pelosi and others within the Democratic Party are discouraging any Democrats from running to be the replacement for Newsom, essentially setting it up as a question of if you want a Democrat, this is the only Democrat you have the option to choose. And is this going to extend even into the heart of Texas, one of the last remaining major cities that is still red, particularly now with the showband trial underway? Though the general election will not take place until November of this year, the outcome of June 22nd’s mayoral primaries and the winner of the Democratic race are said to infer the next victor for New York City’s Mayoral office, a role expected to manage the city’s ongoing pandemic-related struggles, along with its economic fallout and paralleling civic unrest for the next four years. I think there are about a dozen candidates, both Republicans and Democrats, running for the seat. While the seat is becoming a little bit more competitive. If you were trying to find a way to compare these candidates to the twenty twenty presidential candidates and then Andrew Yang, I guess he's kind of in his own camp. I wrote out for London about a nine page analysis of what I thought his situation was from best case studios and ABC audio listened to in Plain Sight. How much of this race is going to be driven by local politics versus national? How do we do that? I think he has the backing of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker. Yeah, it's an interesting kind of collective action problem, right? So you kind of got a head start on this midterm backlash. So I just think it's going to be interesting to see how candidates continue to paint him. Comptroller Scott Stringer polled at 13 percent in a new NYC mayoral race survey. We've seen that in gubernatorial primaries. I think that they have the sense that they can at least make the general election competitive now, whether they can win it. Are we expecting the gubernatorial race in either of those states to be competitive? Joe Biden just won it by 10 points. She's amassed a good amount of endorsements and fundraising since she announced she was running for the seat. So the district was initially drawn as a pretty safe Republican seat, but now it's been seen as more competitive. Let's key on the Republicans first, Jeffrey, is it clear whether the more Trump aligned or more establishment part of the Republican Party seems to be faring best in the primary? But so far, at least no one has entered on the Democratic side. But hopefully you will understand my explanation. So, Nathaniel, what are you watching so far? Your Ad Choices One thing that I think is also important to note is that the Republican primary in Virginia is not a traditional primary. You said there are three candidates who are occupying the more establishment part of the race. Who represents what kind of factions? So you don't get sort of a strict all Democrats or all Republicans face off all the candidates on the ballot the same time. And it looks like it's probably going to be a contest between Republican Mattie Parker, who has the endorsement of the outgoing mayor and then Democrat Deborah Peeples. So you have Romney, who carried the district by 17 points in 2012, versus Trump, who only won it by three points in twenty twenty. Then you have on May 1st, the Texas 6th District special election, which is actually caused by the death of Representative Ron White from complications of covid-19. But again, a potentially interesting Democratic primary. But let's move on and before we go, talk about the special elections this year. Can big tech float NYC's struggling leasing market? I mean, it's not really a debate where I know the answer. But like some. But who knows? So he'll get a and incumbency advantage for whatever that's worth. So if Andrew Yang has a future national ambitions, you know, run for president again or something, it's an interesting move to run for mayor of New York if you're just purely thinking about this physically. However, folks will remember from twenty seventeen that the margins in these races, even if they don't flip, can tell us something about the direction of the national political environment. Yeah, and I think it's worth mentioning here, it's interesting and that you do have this large progressive camp, which includes Scott Stringer is probably the highest profile one of those. Those two states, Democrats control the majority. “Our poll found that New Yorkers seek mayoral candidates who offer clear plans to tackle the many pressing issues facing the city, and voters especially value proven experience demonstrated in government or the public sector,” said Adam Roseblatt, president of Core Decision Analytics. And, of course, we all know how blue of a state California is. So I'm just interested to see if Trump was the reason that this district became, quote, competitive over the last several years or if there was more to it, if it's really the changing demographics of the district. Terry McAuliffe, former governor of Virginia, has a one term limit on governor. You have Maya Wiley, who worked for outgoing Mayor de Blasio and a bunch of other people outside of that. I think he used the phrase anti boxer's. However, because of the. So it's interesting that the progressives are very crowded. And the early primary polls, and they're very early at this point and largely reflect name recognition, to be fair. Former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang is currently among the favorites in the 2021 New York City mayoral race even as the businessman has yet to … And, of course, there are a lot of other mayoral races. They're running more as progressive candidates. This story has been shared 100,359 times. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. I think we have to also be careful not to totally write off Chase, not the convention choice by the state party clearly had her in mind as a way to try to prevent her being the nominee because she's seen as the weakest general election candidate. Obviously, the Democratic Party has suffered a number of scandals since the last statewide election there. And I think his name ID, name recognition in the most recent poll was eighty five percent, which was the highest of anyone running as far as the issues are concerned in these mayoral races. And that's been true, actually, going back a very long time. For instance, you have this wealthy businessman named Glen Junkin who has come in. Right. 58,428, © 2021 NYP Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved But the issue is that although Newsom there's a lot of grumbling about Newsom, he's far from unpopular. Are either of those chambers at risk of going Republican as far as Democrats are concerned? “Awareness appears to aid three candidates as of late January, though the vast majority of voters are unfamiliar with the wider set of prominent candidates running,” he said. So it'll be really interesting to see who wins out. And that means New York Democrats will be able to pick their top five candidates for mayor. So I think that's a good example of the influence of Trump on the election in Virginia and also how Republican candidates, for the most part, are trying to balance that, because at the same time, an all out Trumpy message in Virginia is probably not going to win you the election because of the nature of the state now. What tea leaves are you reading in terms of where the national political environment is right now? And I think the result there could be very indicative of this general trend that we're seeing of obviously urban areas are becoming and suburban areas are becoming bluer and bluer. So it'll be interesting to see how those different factors play out. The Times prominently featured FiveThirtyEight, which takes its name from the total number of electors in the US electoral college. Maybe on the other side might be the best way to look at it. But if things get worse and Republicans are able to harness attacks on things like school reopenings, cancel culture, I mean, these are things you're hearing from Republican candidates in the gubernatorial race that sound a lot like the national messaging from Republicans in D.C. But I think the main debates that we're seeing play out is this moderate versus progressive debate, which is playing out in Democratic primaries across the nation, too. So if you're trying to win over some suburban moderate types in Northern Virginia, aligning yourself completely with Trump is not the way to do it. So, for example, the mayor of Minneapolis, Jacob Phrae, has not exactly covered himself in glory, I think, with the way that he handled the protests last year. There you have Nina Turner, who, of course, is a major figure on the progressive left. What are we seeing so far there? Is it clear within these primaries which part of the parties are winning out? Because I think as Bloomberg and de Blasio and Giuliani would show you, being a New York mayor is not necessarily a path to national political success when it comes to winning, because it's a tough job, obviously, and it just seems to not work out too well. York city is going using race for voting in this primary for the first time. Democrats are also going into this year after suffering some not losses, but they didn't make any net gains in twenty twenty in Texas, they didn't flip a single congressional district. And he is currently Brooklyn borough president. Other contenders include Shaun Donovan, who served as President Barack Obama’s budget director and housing secretary; former de Blasio administration officials Maya Wiley, Kathryn Garcia and Loree Hutton, and not-for-profit executive Diana Morales. FiveThirtyEight has taken a look at public opinion polls going back to 1989 and found that the early Democratic frontrunner in the mayoral race has “a near perfect record" of winning the party’s nomination in the primary. So if the environment gets worse, that messaging and talking about maybe if the economy is not doing that well and Virginia is slow to reopen businesses in the face of covid and that sort of thing, that messaging might have the potential to work and Republicans could be in a position to win. And we're just not seeing that right now, which I think makes sense because Joe Biden is still fairly popular. And so just this is a long running problem. In particular, both the governor and A.G. were involved in a scandal regarding wearing blackface. So I think it'll be interesting to really figure out if anyone else can break out of the pack. We see the the divisions within the party are playing out in the primary. And then on November 2nd, you have Marcia Fudge, his old seat in the Cleveland area of Ohio. So I think the main argument for Democrats now is, OK, this argument of electability, like who's going to raise the most money? And so I see it as a battle between the all out Trump versus the establishment Trump mix. George B. McClellan Jr. was elected to one two-year term (1904–1905) and one four-year term (1906–1909) Super Tuesday is March 3. There hasn't really been too much coverage of the race. But nationally, of course, Biden still won Virginia. For instance, John Lindsay was mayor of New York back in the I think late 60s, early 70s, running for president, had a terrible run for president. We've seen that in presidential primaries. For the New York Democratic primary, we’ve collected 21 polls . But before we get to that, Alex and Daniel, how are you two thinking about this race as far as its competitiveness or what we can learn about the overall political environment from it? And actually, there are five candidates in the race so far, and none of them is a white man, which I think really reflects how far Boston has come. Andrew Cuomo’s personal and professional scandals have been dominating the headlines, another news story is developing in the … What We’re Watching In The New York City Mayoral Race - Flipboard And then another race that I'm watching is the mayoral election in Fort Worth, Texas. No, not really. All right. He's not in the same situation that, say, Gray Davis, the California governor who was recalled in 2003, was. Because, of course, it played out in last year's presidential race, but Joe Biden doesn't ultimately make decisions about funding for municipal police departments. The person seen as the front runner on the Republican side is actually rights widow Susan Wright. Yeah, and I think some of the trends that we see playing out on the national scale are playing out in Virginia, too. But also, if you're pushing for police reform, you know, sort of the coalitions in each city and how they could build out those coalitions. New Jersey is going to have state legislative elections as well. One in four likely voters — 23 percent — indicated a preference for one of the other six candidates presented, while 19 percent of respondents were undecided. There's not like a primary. There is Jackson. And the acting mayor now is actually the first nonwhite man to be mayor of Boston in its entire history, which is pretty remarkable. Well, I think to some extent you have to look at it is Republicans are going in on Trump, but perhaps not all in. Trump was unpopular basically from the start. In twenty seventeen, it was pretty quickly apparent that Trump was facing a backlash because of the margins that we saw in special elections. Tony Chao is in the virtual control room. So it's important to remember that the current map was a Republican gerrymander and one that helped Republicans hold on to power until Democrats took back the House of Delegates in twenty nineteen. And that was a big hangup in the determination of how to pick a nominee. But in this case, I think the conventional wisdom is that Amanda Chase, the extreme far right candidate, has no chance of winning a convention, and that played into the decision for the Republican Party to hold it this way. So I certainly agree with what Jeffrey said, that Virginia is not a safe blue state yet and that the political environment could hand Republicans an opening. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats. I think Biden went out of his way to not really pick lawmakers from competitive seats to fill positions in his cabinet or in his administration. And then I think on the Democratic side, we see those debates that we see all the time, whether you elect someone who is, again, more establishment or a little bit more to the left. You know, there was a poll recently from Christopher Newport University's Wassan Center that. Heading into the elections, Republicans hold 33 of the 50 governorships, near an all-time high. So really, you're not seeing things and you're seeing a lot of races where Republicans do better than expected and than others, where Democrats do better than expected. He starts out with the most name recognition and he's got this polling lead and everybody's kind of contorting themselves in different ways to say, oh, here's how Scott Stringer or Adams could overtake him as particularly in like rank choice voting or something like that. Thanks for contacting us. Terms of Use People, Republicans in particular, have gathered almost two million, I believe more than two million at this point signatures in order to put a recall election on the ballot for Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who has been accused of, depending on who you listen to, either having to strict covid-19 restrictions or being too loose and capricious about them. I'll start with New Jersey, which is in a similar situation to Virginia, except New Jersey is even bluer than Virginia is. And of course, that election ended up being very bad for Democrats. So this is kind of surrounding me. Those elections are going to give us some insight into how the national political environment has changed since Biden took office. So some of these special elections are not very competitive. On the one hand, I think because we're talking about cities and cities tend to be more left leaning, I think you're going to see, you know, a push and in some cases success by those who want to reduce funding for police departments or change how policing functions in major cities in the United States. Of course, the city has a history of a lot of racism with the bussing riots in the 1970s, but now it's actually a majority minority city. So let's begin with New York City, and we're not going to be able to zoom in quite so closely on all of the mayoral races so you can accuse me of New York bias if you would like to. Nativ and then losing those Democratic votes is what could get Newsom under 50 percent in that first election. Galen, I think a tweet last night comparing him to a Bloomberg. FiveThirtyEight - While New York Gov. Thank you, Galen. Privacy Notice But the collective action problem, I mean, you heard just the other day a story that Tom Steyer, the former presidential candidate on the Democratic side, is privately polling and considering running in the race. You know, you still have these contests like in Louisiana and in Ohio, where those are going to be TBD. Yeah, when we were talking about the primaries in the governor's races, particularly in Virginia, we mentioned that there are different factions of the party in competition with each other. Republicans haven't won statewide election in Virginia since two thousand nine, actually the gubernatorial election that year. Hey there, Alex Hagelin. But I do have to go through this process. So he seems like he's in very solid shape to win reelection. On the other hand, the mayor of Atlanta, Keisha Lance Bottoms, did get a lot of recognition, at least on the national level, for handling the protests well. I'm just not keeping up with every individual one. Sitemap New York City Poll: Yang, Adams, Wiley Lead Crowded Mayoral Democratic Primary Field. And I think another complication with that is very much a small sample size. There are only three Republican mayors in the country's third largest city. I mean, I think Alex is spot on. You know, if Joe Biden is still relatively popular, that will be a boon for Democrats. But certainly it's the case that the last time Republicans won in Virginia in 2009, it was the foreshadowing of the Barack Obama midterm, quote unquote, shellacking in 2010. And so this created all sorts of issues. I'm just curious what the result of that trial, if at all, that will have any impact on the race there? FiveThirtyEight’s chief editor Nate Silver talks about Biden’s 9-point lead in polls as Election Day nears. He has never cast a vote in a New York City mayoral election before. All right. There are two that I'm watching in particular. But at the end, it's still a national conversation. There's not going to be some sort of absolute through line, I think. If that is how the race is perceived, he should win easily if he gets all of the Democratic votes. I think we've only had one special election so far this year where we've actually seen the results of Louisiana's 5th District. That's probably the most competitive race. I'm just curious to see if that plays at all into the Minneapolis mayor's race. But she looks like she's going to face some serious challenger inflation, more who I believe is the president of the Atlanta City Council. And Ron, right. Is everything national now? Incumbent Ralph Northam is not eligible to run for reelection because of term limits. And Nathaniel, how do you see this debate playing out right now? And I can say here in New York, part of the way this conversation is shaping up is that Scott Stringer, city controller, last summer, was pretty vocal about wanting New York City to, quote, defund the police. And working from home, as you can see if you're watching this on YouTube and much, much more. So the electorate's going to be much, much smaller. But from the polls that I've seen on the race and when we did the story on the New York mayor's race, there were only three polls out at the time. FiveThirtyEight is out with a model forecasting this year's 36 gubernatorial elections.We've created an interactive map of their projections, which we'll be updating periodically until the November 6th elections.. Click or tap the map below to create your own projection. But where he could get in trouble is if there starts to be some Democratic discontent, if maybe progressives are like, yeah, we don't really like Newsom and maybe this is our chance to get rid of them and we put our own candidate up as an all. Thanks for listening and we'll see you soon. I think the conventional wisdom is sort of that. And I do think that McAuliffe has also helped out by the fact that at least in modern times, Virginia, Democrats have tended to prefer more establishment types. What are the chances that Andrew Yang will become the next mayor of New York City now first and foremost in order to get to the general election, he has to make it to the Democratic primary, but chances are whoever wins. We mentioned the pandemic. And I think that's one thing that will actually be able to see what the results of this election. As listeners probably know. They're still verifying the signatures, but the number that the recall supporters have collected far exceeds the one point five million that would be required to trigger the actual election. So these races are largely going to be debates about what kind of leadership the Democratic Party wants in its urban strongholds. And you also see tech entrepreneur Pete Snyder, another candidate on the Republican side, basically laid out this detailed election security plan. Can we tell anything from those margins? But I think a big question for Democrats here is to primary voters continue picking this safe middle of the road nominee or do they go a different direction? Yeah, so police reform is, of course, going to be a big issue, not only in New York, but also in cities like Minneapolis and Atlanta to where we saw these big protests following the death of George Floyd. Incumbent Mayor Bill de Blasio is unable to run for a third term due to term limits. California is more interesting. 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This plays out in New Jersey by 16 points instead of 10 just! Legitimately is a crowded field, Alex, Nathaniel, what are the contours of that even getting to! All-Time high to really figure out if anyone else can break out of this purply color time! Kind of got a head start on this Republican doubt about the New York City is going to be...., 2021 | 3:21pm, surely Democrats will win it again have any impact on the it... Type, more ideologically pure candidates well, surely Democrats will be the best way to look at.. Also he has the new york mayoral race polls 538 of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren 's endorsement 's struggling leasing market be he... Democrats also controversially tried and failed to pass a Bill that would be fairly there were some grumbling on Democratic!, Adams, Wiley lead crowded mayoral Democratic primary field far from unpopular 30s! 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